Wednesday, April 4, 2007

My Trading Plan (first week of April 2007)

On request by Shini (Gopeng panggil Shiman - macamana jadi Shiman? Dr. Shiman?), I will write down my trading plan..
actually i am not in the mood after reading a quite disturbing email from UK 'Independent'. As we all know, middle east now in a crisis after 15 Britons were captured by Iran. And I learned to know from 'Independent', Iran was actually retaliating to US actions of capturing 5 junior Iran government officials a week before that.US troops actually targeted to capture 2 senior Iranian officials, one is the head of special forces or spy agency and the other is a military general.However, they have failed during the raid at Kurds control area in Iraq last week. At the moment, Pelosi, a speaker of US senate (if I'm not mistaken) is in Syria and Bush is deeply mad at her visit. Firstly, Pelosi is an opposition to Bush and she is trying to make nice with Bush enemy. Secondly, US military complete with aircraft carriers are already in the Persian Gulf vicinity. And from reliable sources, the US had already plan to launch an attack to Iranian strategic nuclear installations on the April 7th.
Why am I so concerned about this? If the attack really goes as planned, obviously it will be brief. Americans cannot engage the same strategy to engage in a long battle with Iran because I feel that they do not have enough resources to do that any more plus Mr. Bush have run out of time and trust from American people. So the attack will be brief, hit and run. But Iran obviously will retaliate. Iran will fight back and this will create chaos in the Gulf, that is rich with black gold. Oil prices will spike up and inflation will rise globally including Malaysia. Petronas will once again report a historical profits but my shares will go to Holland. Share markets will collapse just like what had happened in 1991 when the US attacked Iraq when Iraq invaded Kuwait.
If this is going to happen, my advise is to cut loss. Sell whatever shares you have, and just take whatever profit that is still left or just cut your losses. If you dare, hold them further and pray..
But the good news is, Iranian President had just announced he will release the 15 captured Britons. He gave his words and thank God.
I am not creating any panic situation here and hopefully everybody will still hold on to their shares and guts. What I am trying to explain is that share markets react to what is happening surrounding us. You have to be alert and understand the situation globally..(Melayu glokal?)..
If anything goes well, no war, earth quake, terrorist attack what so ever, I am now praying that DBHD, EKRAN, PATIMAS-WA will rise at least 10% up from closing price today so that I can happily dispose them and make some money..
Some counters that can be watched: SMRTECH (TP:RM0.64), COMMERZ-CB (upside more than 100% if mother share goes up more than RM13.00.)
OSK will issue new call warrants tomorrow: DIGI (RM0.17), BURSA (RM0.10) & AMMB (RM0.14) Please contact your OSK broker to subscribe.
Till then.


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